Tucson Housing Market Update: Are Prices Dropping—or Just Normalizing?

If you’ve been watching headlines or scrolling social media, you’ve probably seen mixed messages about the Tucson housing market. Some say prices are falling. Others warn of a crash. And many buyers and sellers are asking the same two questions:

What are current pricing and inventory levels in Greater Tucson—and will home prices crash or keep rising?

Let’s walk through what the most recent data actually shows, what it means for today’s market, and what it doesn’t suggest—using verified local numbers from the MLS of Southern Arizona® (MLSSAZ), updated January 2026.

Where Home Prices Stand Right Now in Greater Tucson
As of early January 2026, the median sale price in Pima County is about $370,000, representing a small year-over-year decline of roughly 2%. After several years of rapid price growth between 2020 and 2022, the Tucson market is now experiencing price normalization—not a collapse.

Prices have flattened, not plunged. Month-to-month pricing has remained relatively stable since mid-2025, and average price per square foot is down only slightly year over year.

Inventory Levels: More Choices, But Still Not a Glut
Greater Tucson currently has approximately 2,777 active listings, translating to about 3.8 months of supply. A balanced market typically ranges from 4 to 6 months of supply. Markets that experience sharp price declines usually exceed 7 months of supply.

Homes Are Taking Longer to Sell—and That’s Normal
Median days on market currently sit around 34 days. That’s longer than the hyper-competitive pandemic years, but far from distressed conditions. This shift allows buyers to make informed decisions and sellers to price strategically.

Why So Many Price Reductions?
Roughly 43% of active listings have had a price reduction, averaging about 6%. This reflects sellers adjusting expectations rather than falling values. Homes priced correctly are still selling—often shortly after an adjustment.

Buyer Demand Is Still There
Demand remains strongest in the $300,000–$499,999 range, where homes continue to move relatively quickly. Higher price points are seeing longer timelines, which is typical in a higher-rate environment.

Will Tucson Home Prices Crash?
Based on current data, a crash is unlikely. Inventory remains below crash-level thresholds, homeowner equity is strong, distressed sales are low, and lending standards have been far more conservative than in past downturns.

Will Prices Keep Rising?
Rapid appreciation is also unlikely in the near term. Instead, the market is transitioning to modest, sustainable movement driven by fundamentals like pricing, condition, and location.

What This Means for Buyers and Sellers
Buyers have more leverage and choice. Sellers need realistic pricing and preparation. Homeowners benefit from continued market stability and strong long-term fundamentals.

The Takeaway

The Tucson housing market is not crashing—and it’s not overheating. It’s stabilizing. And that’s what a healthy market looks like.

Sources:

MLS of Southern Arizona® (MLSSAZ) Market Snapshot, Updated January 8, 2026